Based on past history the governor and commissioner outcomes are set. Notwithstanding the prevalence of Jack signs (and the welcome dearth of any commissioner signs at all) in my travels (which have been mostly in Morris and central Union County) Murphy will win by about 55% to 45% of the vote and the incumbent commissioners will ride that to about a 20% margin when you consider the Elizabeth and Plainfield super majorities.
The interesting race will be in Kenilworth where Republicans would take over with a sweep of the two council seats up for election and that is what I will focus on after a look at the history of gubernatorial election polls and outcomes as taken from RealClear Politics that make me believe that Murphy is a lock.
| Poll | Corzine (D) | Forrester (R) | Spread |
| RCP Average (10/31-11/6) | 48.8% | 42.4% | Corzine +6.4 |
| WNBC/Marist (11/6) | 51% | 46% | Corzine +5 |
| Rasmussen (11/6) | 44% | 39% | Corzine +5 |
| Survey USA (11/4-6) | 50% | 44% | Corzine +6 |
| Quinnipiac (10/31-11/6) | 52% | 45% | Corzine +7 |
| Monmouth/Gannett (11/2-4) | 47% | 38% | Corzine +9 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | Christie (R) | Corzine (D) | Daggett (I) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | — | 48.8 | 44.5 | 5.8 | Christie +4.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/27 – 11/1 | — | 42.6 | 41.6 | 10.4 | Christie +1.0 |
| Monmouth/Gannett | 10/31 – 11/1 | 722 LV | 41 | 43 | 8 | Corzine +2 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/30 – 11/1 | 582 LV | 45 | 42 | 10 | Christie +3 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/27 – 11/1 | 1533 LV | 42 | 40 | 12 | Christie +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/29 – 10/29 | 1000 LV | 46 | 43 | 8 | Christie +3 |
| Stockton/Zogby | 10/27 – 10/29 | 1093 LV | 39 | 40 | 14 | Corzine +1 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | Buono (D) | Christie (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | — | 38.1 | 60.4 | Christie +22.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/23 – 11/3 | — | 34.7 | 58.8 | Christie +24.1 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/30 – 11/3 | 1388 LV | 33 | 61 | Christie +28 |
| Monmouth | 10/30 – 11/2 | 1436 LV | 37 | 57 | Christie +20 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 10/28 – 11/2 | 535 LV | 30 | 66 | Christie +36 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 10/24 – 10/30 | 570 LV | 40 | 59 | Christie +19 |
| Kean University | 10/28 – 10/28 | 1000 LV | 36 | 54 | Christie +18 |
| Richard Stockton College | 10/23 – 10/28 | 804 LV | 32 | 56 | Christie +24 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Murphy (D) | Guadagno (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | — | — | 55.6 | 42.3 | Murphy +13.3 |
| RCP Average | 10/14 – 11/5 | — | — | 49.5 | 35.1 | Murphy +14.4 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/30 – 11/5 | 662 LV | 5.2 | 53 | 41 | Murphy +12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/31 – 11/1 | 800 LV | 4.0 | 50 | 35 | Murphy +15 |
| Gravis | 10/30 – 11/1 | 611 RV | 4.0 | 46 | 32 | Murphy +14 |
| Monmouth | 10/27 – 10/31 | 529 LV | 4.3 | 53 | 39 | Murphy +14 |
| Emerson | 10/26 – 10/28 | 540 LV | 4.2 | 47 | 31 | Murphy +16 |
| Suffolk* | 10/25 – 10/28 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 49 | 33 | Murphy +16 |
| Stockton | 10/18 – 10/24 | 525 LV | 4.3 | 51 | 37 | Murphy +14 |
| FOX News | 10/14 – 10/16 | 679 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 33 | Murphy +14 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Murphy (D) | Ciattarelli (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth | 10/21 – 10/25 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 51 | 40 | Murphy +11 |
| Emerson | 10/15 – 10/18 | 600 LV | 3.9 | 50 | 44 | Murphy +6 |
| Stockton University | 9/17 – 9/25 | 552 LV | 4.1 | 50 | 41 | Murphy +9 |
| Monmouth | 9/16 – 9/20 | 804 RV | 3.5 | 51 | 38 | Murphy +13 |
| Monmouth | 8/11 – 8/16 | 810 RV | 3.5 | 52 | 36 | Murphy +16 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 6/9 – 6/16 | 401 RV | — | 48 | 33 | Murphy +15 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 5/21 – 5/29 | 467 RV | 5.6 | 52 | 26 | Murphy +26 |
Moving on to Kenilworth, where we have had coin-flip races that often depended on who heads the ticket I see the Republicans taking over for three reasons:
- Ciattarelli will probably take Kenilworth like Trump did in 2020
- This little speech from Councilman Laudati, who is on the ballot as an incumbent Democrat, from the 10/13/21 council meeting before a vote on a resolution where he seems resigned to an outcome:
3. New money is coming in for both Republicans and Democrats with the difference being that most of that money for Republicans is coming from Kenilworth people whereas the Democrats seem to be getting a Cryan push. Democrats do report $2,100 in $300 contributions with no names attached which may be the Suplee Clooney accountants or maybe even Harbor Consultants since Anthony Gallerno’s $2,000+ contribution does not seem to have come in yet for 2021.
Donors of over $300 to Kenilworth Democrats as reported on 10/16/21 filing:
Donors (some even under $300) to Kenilworth Republicans as reported on 2021 filings to date:
countywatchers 