Election Predictions – 2021

Based on past history the governor and commissioner outcomes are set. Notwithstanding the prevalence of Jack signs (and the welcome dearth of any commissioner signs at all) in my travels (which have been mostly in Morris and central Union County) Murphy will win by about 55% to 45% of the vote and the incumbent commissioners will ride that to about a 20% margin when you consider the Elizabeth and Plainfield super majorities.

The interesting race will be in Kenilworth where Republicans would take over with a sweep of the two council seats up for election and that is what I will focus on after a look at the history of gubernatorial election polls and outcomes as taken from RealClear Politics that make me believe that Murphy is a lock.

PollCorzine (D)Forrester (R)Spread
RCP Average (10/31-11/6)48.8%42.4%Corzine +6.4
WNBC/Marist (11/6)51%46%Corzine +5
Rasmussen (11/6)44%39%Corzine +5
Survey USA (11/4-6)50%44%Corzine +6
Quinnipiac (10/31-11/6)52%45%Corzine +7
Monmouth/Gannett (11/2-4)47%38%Corzine +9
PollDateSampleChristie (R)Corzine (D)Daggett (I)Spread
Final Results48.844.55.8Christie +4.3
RCP Average10/27 – 11/142.641.610.4Christie +1.0
Monmouth/Gannett10/31 – 11/1722 LV41438Corzine +2
SurveyUSA10/30 – 11/1582 LV454210Christie +3
Quinnipiac10/27 – 11/11533 LV424012Christie +2
Rasmussen Reports10/29 – 10/291000 LV46438Christie +3
Stockton/Zogby10/27 – 10/291093 LV394014Corzine +1
PollDateSampleBuono (D)Christie (R)Spread
Final Results38.160.4Christie +22.3
RCP Average10/23 – 11/334.758.8Christie +24.1
Quinnipiac10/30 – 11/31388 LV3361Christie +28
Monmouth10/30 – 11/21436 LV3757Christie +20
Rutgers-Eagleton10/28 – 11/2535 LV3066Christie +36
Fairleigh Dickinson10/24 – 10/30570 LV4059Christie +19
Kean University10/28 – 10/281000 LV3654Christie +18
Richard Stockton College10/23 – 10/28804 LV3256Christie +24
PollDateSampleMoEMurphy (D)Guadagno (R)Spread
Final Results55.642.3Murphy +13.3
RCP Average10/14 – 11/549.535.1Murphy +14.4
Quinnipiac10/30 – 11/5662 LV5.25341Murphy +12
Rasmussen Reports10/31 – 11/1800 LV4.05035Murphy +15
Gravis10/30 – 11/1611 RV4.04632Murphy +14
Monmouth10/27 – 10/31529 LV4.35339Murphy +14
Emerson10/26 – 10/28540 LV4.24731Murphy +16
Suffolk*10/25 – 10/28500 LV4.44933Murphy +16
Stockton10/18 – 10/24525 LV4.35137Murphy +14
FOX News10/14 – 10/16679 LV3.54733Murphy +14
PollDateSampleMoEMurphy (D)Ciattarelli (R)Spread
Monmouth10/21 – 10/251000 LV3.15140Murphy +11
Emerson10/15 – 10/18600 LV3.95044Murphy +6
Stockton University9/17 – 9/25552 LV4.15041Murphy +9
Monmouth9/16 – 9/20804 RV3.55138Murphy +13
Monmouth8/11 – 8/16810 RV3.55236Murphy +16
Fairleigh Dickinson6/9 – 6/16401 RV4833Murphy +15
Rutgers-Eagleton5/21 – 5/29467 RV5.65226Murphy +26

Moving on to Kenilworth, where we have had coin-flip races that often depended on who heads the ticket I see the Republicans taking over for three reasons:

  1. Ciattarelli will probably take Kenilworth like Trump did in 2020
  2. This little speech from Councilman Laudati, who is on the ballot as an incumbent Democrat, from the 10/13/21 council meeting before a vote on a resolution where he seems resigned to an outcome:

3. New money is coming in for both Republicans and Democrats with the difference being that most of that money for Republicans is coming from Kenilworth people whereas the Democrats seem to be getting a Cryan push. Democrats do report $2,100 in $300 contributions with no names attached which may be the Suplee Clooney accountants or maybe even Harbor Consultants since Anthony Gallerno’s $2,000+ contribution does not seem to have come in yet for 2021.

Donors of over $300 to Kenilworth Democrats as reported on 10/16/21 filing:

Donors (some even under $300) to Kenilworth Republicans as reported on 2021 filings to date:

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